Ledn will be at LaBitconf this week! Come visit us at our booth. We’ll also be participating on a panel on Thursday. Check out the event page for more details and reach out to us on Social Media if you’re there and want to connect!
Inflation is surging and the powers that be are feeling the heat. Biden has been openly addressing soaring gasoline prices, and the Fed will be out in the media, likely getting grilled on inflation and what it plans to do.
The Fed has been saying that inflation “should subside” for longer than many can remember, and the term transitory has become a trigger word for many.
Expect the Fed to bang the same drum in the week ahead as it speaks to the media and the American people.
More paper but less people...
As a parting thought, we wanted to share an interesting data set that was shared by Noah Smith last week, highlighting that the contribution of international immigration to U.S. population growth seems to have reversed its trend over the past 6 years.
This is not great for the U.S. economy, and it highlights just how much of the recent growth in GDP has been financial growth vs. organic population growth.
As always, we wrap up with a summary of the upcoming economic data and earnings reports for the week:
Tuesday:
8.30 AM EST - U.S. Retail Sales (High expectations here for a +1.5% month-over-month increase. If the number comes in below, it may put pressure on equity markets).
9.30 AM EST - VanEck Bitcoin Futures ETF starts trading.
2.30 PM EST - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks.
Wednesday:
9.10 AM EST - New York Fed President John Williams speaks at Treasury market conference
11 AM EST - Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks
11.20 AM EST - Fed President Mester and Gov. Waller speak on stablecoins
12.40 PM EST - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
4 PM EST - Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks
Thursday:
8.00 AM EST - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
8.30 AM EST - Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. The expectation is for a gradual reduction to 267,000 new claims. While no single-month move should derail markets, the bigger risk is for a surprise to the upside that could derail the recovery narrative.
2.00 PM EST - Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks
3.30 PM EST - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
Friday:
10.45 AM EST - Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks
12.15 PM EST - Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida speaks
It's a big week coming up, and as always, we'll keep you posted on any relevant news throughout the week right here and from our Twitter account.
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